Model producers and users do not adequately assess the range of plausible outcomes and are overly reliant on central estimates that do not reflect inherent uncertainty. All modelled information is uncertain, and decision-makers need information on the possible range of outcomes to plan well, manage risks and make better decisions. However, model producers do not routinely evaluate or communicate the uncertainty in their models. There is only limited evidence of departments using uncertainty a...

Model producers and users do not adequately assess the range of plausible outcomes and are overly reliant on central estimates that do not reflect inherent uncertainty. All modelled information is uncertain, and decision-makers need information on the possible range of outcomes to plan well, manage risks and make better decisions. However, model producers do not routinely evaluate or communicate the uncertainty in their models. There is only limited evidence of departments using uncertainty analysis or developing contingency plans. Departments usually provide HM Treasury with a single central estimate and do not provide a range of uncertainty Type: conclusion | Number: 6 | Response status: not_addressed Government response: 6.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: March 2023 6.2 The Finance Function will work with the Analysis Function to identify appropriate analysis and modelling considerations relating to uncertainty and incorporat